A HAZUS Comparison of the 1985 Six Cities Study

Overview of the Comparison

In 1985, the Central United States Earthquake Preparedness Project (CUSEPP), originally created by FEMA, had the responsibility of helping the CUSEC states in planning, preparedness and mitigation, response, and recovery. One of the projects of CUSEPP was “An Assessment of Damage and Casualties for Six Cities in the Central United States Resulting from Earthquakes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone” report. This report was prepared for FEMA by Allen & Hoshall, Inc., an engineering and architecture firm in Memphis, Tennessee. The study provided two earthquake scenarios having surface magnitudes (Ms) of 7.6 and 8.6 and provided loss estimation for the cities: Little Rock, Arkansas; Carbondale, Illinois; Evansville, Indiana; Paducah, Kentucky; Poplar Bluff, Missouri; and Memphis, Tennessee. A similar report was compiled for St. Louis in 1990, which is contained in FEMA publication 192.

In 2003, CUSEC used HAZUS, FEMA's Geographic Information System (GIS) based, loss estimation software to do a comparison of the original Six Cities Study.  HAZUS can estimate losses on a variety of levels. A level one analysis is a basic census tract data set with limited soil data.  The highest level of analysis, or level three, uses comprehensive building inventory, lifeline, and soil data.  For this comparison, data collection and manipulation were not used, so a level one analysis was performed. 

In the comparison, the same six cities were used, as in the original study.  The comparison used magnitude 6.5 & 7.5 events that are more likely to occur in the Central United States.   Epicenters were used from the historic 1811-1812 earthquakes.  In the original study, epicenters "closest to each city" were used.  Theses factors, combined with the limited data in a level one analysis, do not estimate the destruction levels to be as high as the original study.   With the recent activity in the Wabash Valley Seismic Zone, 7.0 events were added to the cities of Paducah, Kentucky; Evansville, Indiana; and Carbondale, Illinois. 

The comparison report (), gives an in depth look at the original study,  the HAZUS software, and the different estimations that HAZUS reported as compared to the original study.  Please note that the report is not all inclusive and that HAZUS cannot 100% accurately predict the damage that could ensue from an earthquake.  It is important to read the comparison report because it can offer an insight into the exclusions and exceptions that HAZUS makes.  The Global Summary Reports listed below are generated by HAZUS.  They provide a detailed view of each study region and event type. 

  Comparison Report/HAZUS Overview (same as above)

HAZUS Global Summary Reports

	Carbondale, Illinois	Magnitude 6.5 Event Magnitude 7.5 Event Magnitude 7.0 Wabash Event
	Evansville, Indiana	Magnitude 6.5 Event Magnitude 7.5 Event Magnitude 7.0 Wabash Event
	Little Rock, Arkansas	Magnitude 6.5 Event Magnitude 7.5 Event
	Memphis, Tennessee	Magnitude 6.5 Event Magnitude 7.5 Event
	Paducah, Kentucky	Magnitude 6.5 Event Magnitude 7.5 Event Magnitude 7.0 Wabash Event
	Poplar Bluff, Missouri	Magnitude 6.5 Event Magnitude 7.5 Event

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